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20th of July 2018

Economy



Pound euro exchange rate: GBP static ahead of Brexit blueprint reveal

This document is expected to provide a definitive picture of what the UK government wants at the end of Brexit negotiations.

Analysts predict a particular focus on forming international trade deals.

Speaking before the document is released, new Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab said: “This government is determined to make sure the UK is ready to lead the industries of the future and seize the opportunities of global trade.

“At the same time, we need to cater for the deeply integrated supply chains that criss-cross the UK and EU and which have developed over our 40 years of membership.

“It is a vision that respects the result of the [EU] referendum and delivers a principled and practical result.”

While clarity on the government’s post-Brexit ambitions would be welcome, the pound hasn’t rallied today due to the risk that EU negotiators might reject the plans.

It is worth remembering that these are the plans which led to the resignation of four Conservative officials, including then - Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson.

With that in mind, there could be some pound to euro exchange rate volatility today when the plans are finally revealed.

The euro has failed to capitalise on current uncertainties among pound traders, with the single currency also being in low demand so far today.

On the Eurozone side, today’s German inflation rate figures have confirmed that the rate of price growth slowed in June.

This disappointing result raises the chances of the overall Eurozone inflation rate slowing down, which could increase the waiting time before the next European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate hike.

The current pound euro exchange rate stalemate might break later on today when ECB meeting accounts are released this afternoon.

The accounts might show that ECB policymakers are second-guessing the planned interest rate hike in late-2019, which could lead to the pound strengthening against a weaker euro.

After this, the week’s last economic event to watch out for will be tomorrow’s speech from Bank of England (BoE) official Jon Cunliffe.

Mr Cunliffe could cause a pound euro exchange rate rally if he backs an August interest rate hike as many economists suspect, or even if he offers a broader signal for a rate hike in 2018.

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